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Macquarie lifts investor variable rates 15 October. The ANU shadow board already prices a 62% chance of another RBA hike on 3 November
Macquarie confirmed on 29 September that it will pass through the full 25 basis points on variable home loan reference rates effective 15 October 2026, six days after CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ move together on 9 October. The ANU shadow board has attached a 62% probability to a further 25bp hike at the 3 November Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, and CBA economists have the hike as their base case. Here is what the pass-through wave means for an Australian landlord's cash flow, where the refinance window still has value, and what another 25bp into Melbourne Cup Day would cost a $750,000 investor loan.
Spring auction clearance fell to 50.3% on 27 September, a 10-week low. CBA's 25bp pass-through takes effect 9 October
Cotality's preliminary auction clearance rate for the weekend ending 27 September 2026 landed at 50.3%, the lowest in 10 weeks, with Melbourne at 48.8%, Sydney 53.6%, Adelaide 39.3% and combined capital volumes down 22.4% week-on-week and 17.7% year-on-year. That was the auction market the night before the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60%. CBA's 25bp pass-through on home loan variable rates is effective 9 October 2026. Here is what the spring market read and the October pass-through mean for an Australian landlord's cash flow, entry pricing and refinance plan.
Dwellings fell 1.1% in September, 5.2% below peak. The RBA's October FSR says a further 20% fall would push only 5% of mortgages into negative equity
Cotality's September 2026 Home Value Index landed on 1 October: national dwelling values down 1.1% for the month, a sixth straight monthly fall, and 5.2% below the March 2026 peak. Brisbane fell 1.5%, Sydney 1.4%, Melbourne 0.7%, Darwin was the only capital to lift. Hours later the RBA released its October Financial Stability Review with a stress test that puts a further 20% price fall at only 5% of mortgages in negative equity, less than 1% there today. Here is the dual-source read on what the September print and the RBA's buffer numbers mean for an Australian landlord's equity, yield and cash flow at a 4.60% cash rate.
RBA lifts cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September. That is the fourth hike of 2026 and about $114 a month more on a $750k investor loan
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, a 15-year high. It is the fourth hike this year, a cumulative 100 basis points from the January starting point. NAB, CBA, Westpac and ANZ have signalled full pass-through, taking the average investor variable rate from about 6.90% toward 7.15% and the average investor variable closer to 6.75%. Cotality has capital city prices already down 0.9% in August, Sydney upper-quartile 10.7% below peak, and Bullock has labelled 4.60% restrictive while keeping the door open on more. Here is what the print costs a landlord's cash flow line, month by month.
Australia's foreign-buyer ban now runs to 30 June 2029. NSW hits 9%, VIC 8%, QLD 8% on the new-build stock offshore investors are pushed toward
The 12 May 2026 Federal Budget extended the ban on foreign purchases of established dwellings by 2 years and 3 months, from 31 March 2027 to 30 June 2029. Offshore investors are corralled into new dwellings and off-the-plan stock, where state duty surcharges still run 7% to 9% on top of ordinary stamp duty, absentee land tax surcharges add another 3% to 5% per year, and the FIRB fee for a new dwelling under $1m sits at $14,100 for 2025-26. Here is the state-by-state map a domestic landlord and any foreign landlord holding new-build stock needs to read alongside the 29 September RBA decision.
Victoria's short-stay levy raised $86m in year one. Brisbane paused its permit scheme, and Tasmania's is one vote away
Victoria's 7.5% short stay levy raised about $86 million in its first year to end-January 2026 with a similar take forecast in the 2026-27 Budget. Brisbane City Council paused its proposed permit scheme on 12 May citing federal negative gearing uncertainty, WA's short-stay register is nine months into mandatory operation, and Tasmania's 5% visitor-paid levy passed the House of Assembly on 8 May. Here is the state-by-state map an Australian landlord needs before deciding whether the Airbnb yield still beats a 12-month lease.
Investor lending fell $4.2 billion in the June quarter, the sharpest drop since 2015
New investor home loan commitments dropped $4.2 billion (10.2%) in the June quarter 2026 to $37.1 billion on the latest ABS Lending Indicators, the biggest dollar fall since 2015 and the biggest number fall since September quarter 2022. Investor share of new home lending slid from a record 41% in March to 35.4% in June. Meanwhile APRA's June quarter data has non-performing investor loans still running below owner-occupier arrears and flat over the quarter, and the investor book has grown to 31.2% of all residential exposures. For a landlord sizing the next purchase seven days out from the 29 September RBA decision, this is the number that matters.
Nine lenders lifted fixed rates in September, pushing some NAB investor terms above 7% before the RBA has met
Nine Australian lenders have hiked fixed home loan rates in September 2026, including NAB (15bp across owner-occupier and investor terms, some now above 7%), ANZ (up to 20bp), ING and Macquarie (both to 6.39% starting). Markets are pricing an 82% chance of a 29 September RBA hike to 4.60%. For a landlord watching a fix roll off, the refinancing window has effectively closed 12 days before the Board even meets. Here's the cost, the maths on a $600,000 investor loan, and the questions worth asking before you sign.
Cotality's national gross rental yield hit 3.79% in August, the highest since September 2019 as rents rose 5.7% and values slid 3.6% from the March peak
Cotality's August 2026 Home Value Index put the national gross rental yield at 3.79%, the highest reading since September 2019. Dwelling values fell 0.9% for the month and sit 3.6% below the March 2026 peak, while rents rose 0.4% in August and 5.7% over the year to a median of about $705 a week. Sydney's gross yield still trails at 3.3%, but Perth 3.9%, Melbourne 4.0% and Canberra 4.3% are quietly compounding a return equation that has not looked this attractive to a spring buyer in six years. This is the landlord read on the yield-expansion story hiding inside the values-decline headlines, and the numbers that have to line up before you buy on the arithmetic.
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