Macquarie lifts investor variable rates 15 October. The ANU shadow board already prices a 62% chance of another RBA hike on 3 November

This article is general information only. It does not consider your personal circumstances and is not tax, credit or investment advice. Speak to a registered mortgage broker, tax agent or licensed property adviser before acting on any of the figures below.

Macquarie's 15 October lift closes the pass-through wave#

The Big 4 moved first. On the Monday after the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each confirmed full pass-through on home loan variable rates (CBA Newsroom, 30 September 2026). Each named 9 October 2026 as the effective date. Bankwest and Bank of Melbourne landed on the same date. The owner-occupier and investor rate books moved together, with the full 25 basis points passed through on principal and interest and interest only, both variable and basic variable product sets.

Macquarie Bank took six more days. In a statement issued on 29 September 2026, Macquarie confirmed that variable home loan reference rates would rise 0.25% per annum effective 15 October 2026, with the ongoing variable rates paid on transaction and savings accounts moving the same day (Macquarie Group press release, 29 September 2026). The transaction account rate lifts from 2.75% to 3.00%. The savings balance tier up to $250,000 lifts from 5.00% to 5.25%, while the mid tier up to $2 million moves to 5.05% and the top tier moves from 2.75% to 4.60% (Savings.com.au, late September 2026).

Macquarie is the second largest residential mortgage lender behind the Big 4 and the primary challenger in the investor segment. Its 15 October lift effectively closes the pass-through wave from the September hike, with the mutual banks mostly having already moved on 8 October, a day ahead of the Big 4 (Broker News, 30 September 2026).

The ANU shadow board is already pricing in 3 November#

Attention has turned to the next RBA meeting. The Reserve Bank Board sits on 3 November 2026, Melbourne Cup Day, four weeks after the Macquarie pass-through takes effect.

The ANU RBA shadow board, which polls academic and industry economists each month, is attaching a 62% probability to a further 25 basis point hike at that meeting, with 37% on a hold (RBA Rate Watch, November 2026 meeting outlook). The shadow board's recommendation sits a notch below the September reading in which it unanimously recommended the hike that landed on 29 September.

Commonwealth Bank's economics team moved to a November hike call back in August 2026, after the July CPI print came in hotter than expected (CBA Newsroom, August 2026). CBA has the cash rate moving to 4.85% on 3 November and holding there into 2027. Westpac IQ and NAB Economics still have the hike-no-more call live, with the cash rate holding at 4.60% through to a first cut in late 2027. ANZ Research has retained a 25bp hike in its forecast since mid-September.

Betashares summarised the market read in early October as 'Melbourne Cup hike still a warm favourite' (Betashares commentary, October 2026). Property update commentary put the economist survey closer to a 69% probability of a hike, with the balance on a hold (PropertyUpdate, October 2026).

The two triggers to watch between now and 3 November are the ABS Labour Force release on 15 October, with the August print at 4.6% unemployment setting the base case (ABS Labour Force release), and the ABS September Quarter CPI release on 29 October, which lands five days before the RBA sits. A soft labour print and a soft CPI print could flip the shadow board back to a hold. A hot CPI print at the end of October makes the hike inevitable.

The arithmetic on a $750,000 investor loan#

The repeat 25 basis point moves are now stacking into a serious cash flow shift. On a $750,000 investor loan on principal and interest with 25 years remaining, the baseline arithmetic is familiar.

• A single 25bp lift adds about $114 a month, or roughly $1,368 a year before tax, to repayments.
• The four 2026 hikes delivered to date have added about $454 a month cumulatively, or $5,450 a year, since 1 January 2026.
• A 3 November hike to 4.85% would add a fifth 25bp of pass-through, taking the 2026 lift to approximately $568 a month, or $6,820 a year before tax.

On a variable rate near 6.75% after the 9 October pass-through, monthly P&I on that $750,000 loan is now roughly $5,178. If the Macquarie 15 October move is applied to a leveraged investor's refinance quote, the arithmetic is the same at the Big 4 level, with the pricing spread typically 20 to 40 basis points favour of Macquarie against the Big 4 standard rate books.

On an interest only investor variable near 7.00%, the dollar impact is larger, because 100% of the servicing cost is interest. On a $750,000 I/O facility at 7.00% the full-year 2026 lift is closer to $7,500 a year compared to 1 January 2026. The after-tax effect depends on the investor's marginal rate and whether the property remains inside the 12 May 2026 grandfathered pool for negative gearing purposes (Baker McKenzie, Budget Bites 2026).

A grandfathered landlord on the 37% marginal rate can still offset the full interest cost against other income, so the after-tax drag of the September hike is around $72 a month on the $750,000 loan. A non-grandfathered landlord, once the 1 July 2027 cutoff lands, will only offset the loss against rental income or future rental capital gains. For that investor, the full $114 a month shows up pre-tax and only comes back through a capital gain on sale.

Fixed vs variable in the back half of October#

The pass-through wave has reset fixed rate pricing across the market. Three dynamics are now in play.

First: lender fixed books are being repriced weekly. A fixed quote issued on 1 October 2026 for a 2 or 3 year investor fix at around 6.19% is likely to be gone by 15 October. The spring 2026 fixed rate books that offered 5.99% 2 year investor fixed deals were pulled through September as the hike was priced in. Any investor sitting on an unexecuted fixed quote should assume the rate is live for days, not weeks.

Second: the fixed vs variable spread is now small enough that the choice is a timing bet, not a pricing bet. Fixed rates near 6.19% to 6.40% investor sit above the variable 6.75% minus any introductory cashback or discount, but only by 10 to 20 basis points, which is the implicit market view on whether another one or two hikes land before any mid-to-late 2027 easing cycle.

Third: cashback and refinance incentive programs continue to be used by second-tier lenders to compete with the Big 4 on new business. ING, Virgin Money, Bankwest, Bank of Queensland and Bendigo have each had variants in market through 2026. Settlement date is the trigger: a settlement before 31 October 2026 captures the current round of promotions; a settlement into November captures the next.

The practical read: if a landlord's objective is to lock in interest cost through the November decision, the fixed rate book that is still accessible on 10 to 20 October is the one to work with. If the objective is to take the market view that 3 November is a hold, variable with offset is the lower-cost structure.

What landlords should check between now and 3 November#

For a landlord sitting on investor debt, the next four weeks are a defined decision window.

• Confirm your lender's effective date in writing. CBA, Westpac, NAB, ANZ, Bankwest, Bank of Melbourne, Teachers Mutual, Macquarie have all published their rate change effective dates. If your lender has not been named in the public pass-through list, request confirmation in writing of the new rate and the effective date.
• Reprice fixed rate quotes weekly. A 3 year investor fixed rate quote from the first week of October is not pricing the 3 November decision. Request fresh quotes at 15 October and again at 29 October after the September Quarter CPI print.
• Run the Nov hike scenario on your current loan. Each 25bp costs about $114 a month per $750,000 of debt. Model the scenario where 3 November adds another 25bp, and check what that does to the net rent after costs on each property.
• Reconfirm your grandfathered status. For established dwellings, the acquisition contract date relative to 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 sets whether your loan losses offset other income or will be ring-fenced from 1 July 2027 (Baker McKenzie, Budget Bites 2026). Keep the original contract on file indefinitely.
• Pre-approve on current servicing calcs. Borrowing capacity on a 4.60% cash rate has already compressed by around 7 percentage points this year. A 4.85% cash rate on 3 November tightens it further. Pre-approvals written in October 2026 lock in the current servicing floor for 90 days.
• Review offset balances against redraw. The ATO's rental interest apportionment rules apply to redraws for private purposes, not to funds parked in a dedicated offset account (covered in our tax time 2026 explainer). If spare cash is sitting in an investor loan redraw, consider moving it to an offset to preserve full deductibility on the loan principal.

Where Propkt fits#

If you own one or more investment properties in Australia and the Macquarie 15 October lift is the second or third variable rate move you have had to run through your cash flow this year, the Propkt mortgage calculator will update each loan's monthly repayment arithmetic in two minutes. For holding costs, insurance, rates and the full line item expense record that your accountant actually wants to see at EOFY, the Propkt expense tracker handles rent collection, outgoings and the correct tax categorisation.

The RBA has four hikes on the board for 2026 and a 62% probability of a fifth on 3 November. The one variable a landlord can control through that window is knowing, to the dollar, what each property is actually earning after the pass-through has washed through. That is what Propkt is built to do.