Nine lenders lifted fixed rates in September, pushing some NAB investor terms above 7% before the RBA has met

This article is general information only. It does not consider your personal circumstances and is not tax, credit or investment advice. Speak to a registered tax agent, mortgage broker or property lawyer before acting on any of the figures below.

The move#

Between the start of September and Thursday 17 September, nine Australian lenders raised at least one fixed home loan rate. Canstar keeps the running tally, and the pattern is consistent across the list: shorter terms lifted 15 to 20 basis points, longer terms lifted 20 to 45, and the pricing floor for a new-customer investor fix has crept from a 5-handle at the start of the month to a firm 6-handle across most of the mainstream book (Canstar).

The two moves that set the tone this week came from NAB and ANZ on the same day. On Thursday 17 September, NAB lifted fixed rates by 15 basis points across its Tailored Fixed and Investment Tailored Fixed products for terms from one through five years, and hours later ANZ went by up to 20 basis points across a similar spread. Both banks' lowest advertised fixed rate now sits at 6.49% on the owner-occupier side, and investor pricing typically adds another 20 to 30 basis points on top of that headline (Australian Broker).

NAB's fifteen-basis-point rise is the smaller of the two on paper, but it is the more significant move for the investor cohort. It pushes some of NAB's longer investor fixed rates above 7% for the first time in this cycle, and it is a live signal that the bank most bullish on the September RBA outcome is repricing before it sees a Board decision.

Why now, twelve days out#

Fixed rates are priced off the swap curve, not the current cash rate. Lenders build a portfolio funding cost by pairing a fixed rate mortgage with an offsetting interest rate swap that turns their fixed receivable into a floating one, and the price of that swap moves with market expectations for the RBA cash rate over the swap's tenor.

When the market decides the next RBA move is up, funding costs on the 2, 3 and 5-year part of the swap curve rise first. Lenders that hold the current pricing get squeezed on their margin. Lenders that move first protect it.

That is what is happening this week. The October 2026 interbank cash rate futures contract implies an average cash rate of 4.515% for October, consistent with a partial priced-in hike. The November contract implies 4.60%, meaning the market has the full 25 basis point hike priced by end-November regardless of whether it lands on 29 September or 4 November (Aussie). Against that backdrop, the current fixed rates are underpriced for a lender that would otherwise have to reprice again after the decision. Moving now is the cheaper route.

The gap between market pricing and economist consensus is the reason this is a live story rather than a footnote. Of the 12 economists tracked by public consensus, 10 expect the RBA to hold on 29 September, while market pricing sits at 82% priced for a hike. NAB has broken ranks from the Big 4, and now expects a 25 basis point rise to 4.60% at the 28-29 September meeting. CBA, Westpac and ANZ still tip November. The lenders are pricing the market, not the consensus.

What is in each bank's book right now#

The moves through September, in the order they hit:

• Macquarie hiked fixed rates twice, taking its lowest advertised fixed to 6.39% and its lowest investor P&I fixed at 70% LVR to 5.49% p.a. (5.51% comparison rate) for a one-year term (Macquarie home loan rates).
• ING hiked fixed rates by up to 20 basis points, with a lowest advertised fixed now 6.39%.
• NAB (17 September) hiked fixed rates by 15 basis points across owner-occupier and investor Tailored Fixed products from 1 to 5 years. Owner-occupier fixed starts from 6.49%, with some investor terms now above 7% (Australian Broker).
• ANZ (17 September) hiked fixed rates by up to 20 basis points, with lowest advertised fixed at 6.49%.
• CBA and Westpac have not led on fixed rate moves this month at time of writing, though both are on a November hike forecast that would put pressure on their fixed books over October (Canstar).
• Five other lenders (non-major banks and second-tiers) have hiked at least one fixed rate through September per Canstar's tally, taking the total to nine.

The Canstar snapshot of a 6.39% floor for owner-occupier fixed and a 6.49% floor across the two Big 4 banks that have moved is the pricing benchmark against which every landlord's own quote should be measured this week.

What that costs on a real investor book#

The mortgage payment maths on a $600,000 investment loan with 30 years remaining, at each of the reference rates in play right now:

• 5.89% variable P&I (well-underwritten new customer): monthly repayment $3,555, annual interest year one about $35,340.
• 6.39% fixed P&I (Macquarie or ING pricing floor): monthly repayment $3,748, annual interest year one about $38,340.
• 6.49% fixed P&I (NAB or ANZ pricing floor post-hike): monthly repayment $3,787, annual interest year one about $38,940.
• 6.84% fixed P&I (recent Westpac investor floor at 70% LVR fixing 1 year): monthly repayment $3,922, annual interest year one about $41,040.
• 7.00% fixed P&I (NAB's higher end investor terms post-17 September): monthly repayment $3,991, annual interest year one about $42,000.

The $5,232 a year gap between 5.89% variable and 7.00% fixed on that loan is close to what Canstar's tracker attributes to four consecutive 25 basis point RBA hikes rolled into a single refix decision (Canstar interest rate forecast).

On a $400,000 investment loan, halve the figures. On a $1,000,000 investment loan, the 5.89% to 7.00% gap widens to roughly $727 a month, or $8,720 a year.

The interest is fully deductible (ATO), so the after-tax cash flow drag at a 37% marginal rate is closer to $3,297 a year on the $600,000 example, or $274 a month. That is not a break-glass number, but on a portfolio of two or three properties it compounds fast, and it lands on top of the deductible cost stack (rates, insurance, strata, agent fees, repairs) that already presses year-end returns.

The demand side is already cracking#

The reason the fixed rate move matters this week rather than next month is that buyer demand has already priced in what the lenders are only now catching up to.

Cotality's preliminary combined-capital auction clearance rate for the weekend of 13-14 September came in at 54.0%, down 4.6 percentage points from the prior week, with 1,832 homes taken to auction across the capital cities (Bloomberg). The final national weekly average sat at 50.6%, down from 51.9% the prior week and well below the 72.3% recorded in the same week of 2025.

That reading sits inside a longer pattern. The national finalised clearance rate has been below 50% in 14 of the past 15 weeks, and auction volumes have fallen 33.6% year on year for the fifth consecutive week (Bloomberg). Melbourne finalised the week at 59.3%, down from 64.2%. Sydney reported a preliminary 55.6%.

The relevance for a landlord watching a fix roll off is that the two sides of the market are pointing in the same direction. Fixed rates are moving up. Auction bids are moving down. A refix decision at the higher pricing floor is not being offset by a friendlier acquisition environment for anyone planning to add to the book on the way through the December quarter.

The refix decision this week#

For a landlord with a fix rolling off in October or November, the calendar leaves a narrow window:

Get three written rate quotes. One Big 4, one second-tier (Macquarie, ING, Bankwest), one broker channel offer. Written, not indicative. The current NAB and ANZ moves have collapsed the gap between the Big 4 pricing floors and the second-tier offers to roughly 60 basis points on the shortest terms.

Run the maths on both scenarios. Model repayment at the current variable your lender would put you on if the fix rolls off with no action, and at each of the fixed rates you have been quoted. Do it on a 4.35% hold and a 4.60% hike as separate columns. Use the Propkt mortgage calculator so the payment schedule reflects actual interest amortisation rather than a spreadsheet placeholder.

Check the break costs on any existing fix. If you are still holding a fix from the 2023-2024 vintage and considering breaking early to lock in a longer term now, the break cost calculation is not the marginal rate difference alone. It is the present value of the swap difference across the residual fixed term, and it can run into the tens of thousands on a well-out-of-the-money fix. Get the break cost in writing before you sign anything.

Log the decision date. If the RBA holds on 29 September, fixed rates may pull back marginally on the day, but the November contract still implies 4.60% and lenders will keep repricing. If the RBA hikes, the current fixed rates are gone by Tuesday 30 September. Either way, the current pricing edge is perishable.

Check the interest-only rollover schedule. For an investor sitting on an interest-only period expiring inside the next 12 months, the refix decision this week is not just about the rate. It is about whether the lender will renew the interest-only term at all under APRA's 6x DTI cap and 3% serviceability buffer (APRA DTI rules). A borrower whose DTI has drifted above 6x on the strength of two extra hikes may find the interest-only door quietly closed, and the P&I rollover cost is materially higher than the fixed rate delta being discussed here (Propkt guide to interest-only rollovers).

The bigger frame#

The 15 to 20 basis point moves this week are small on their own. Stacked with the RBA hike that markets have priced and lenders have already reflected in their swap-curve funding costs, they are the second half of a rate move that will land in landlord repayment schedules regardless of what the Board decides on Tuesday.

For a landlord holding stock through 2026, the two live decisions are not about the RBA. They are about the refix decision in front of any fix rolling off in the next 90 days, and about the acquisition decision on any spring 2026 purchase that would enter settlement into a market where auction clearance rates have printed below 50% for 14 of 15 weeks and the December quarter interest schedule is materially higher than it looked at the start of September.

The rate move is done at the wholesale end. The question is whether it lands in your book at the pricing floor that existed on 1 September, or at the pricing floor that exists on 30 September. Twelve days to decide.

What to do this week if you are a Propkt user#

Two practical steps that take an hour and save the cost of a rushed refix:

1. Run the numbers on both scenarios. Use the Propkt mortgage calculator to model your loan at your current rate, at the best fixed offer you have in hand, and at a 4.60% cash rate variable pass-through. Save each scenario against the property record so the calculation is in your inspection file, not on a napkin.
2. Log the rate quotes and the break cost. Track each written quote and any break cost calculation on the property's expense record inside Propkt so the paper trail is complete if you refinance. The expense tracking module keeps loan documents against the property they relate to, which is the format the ATO expects if you are challenged on interest apportionment at tax time (ATO rental expenses).

The bottom line#

Nine lenders have moved. NAB and ANZ moved on the same day, twelve days before the RBA meets. Markets have priced an 82% probability of a hike that would take the cash rate to 4.60%. Auction clearance rates have printed below 50% for 14 of 15 weeks. The refix decision in front of any landlord this week is not a wait-and-see. It is a get-three-quotes, run-the-numbers, decide-by-Friday decision, and the current pricing floor is the ceiling of the calculation, not the floor.